China's economic politicians or economists, or business tycoons, they are so concerned about the Chinese economy. In particular, the Chinese economy since 2002 has entered a new upward cycle, the great debate on the Chinese economy is to achieve a ; level. the current cycle of the core issues is how to cool the overheated Chinese economy today is not limited to cooling a few years ago has been the real economy, until recently, to the property market and the stock market as represented by the asset markets are booming the bubble has formed an indisputable fact, and therefore to measure whether the Chinese economy ?
look at the real economy. the real economy is overheating mainly the high investment in fixed assets, record high trade surplus continued to rise in the CPI data and even financial data stacked high.
Bureau of Statistics latest figures show 1m8 months, urban fixed asset investment 6.6659 trillion yuan, an increase of 26.7%, still at high temperature operation. Fixed asset investment has remained down is not down with the Since the observations, the past few years the housing boom, has spread to the country of large, medium and small cities, real estate has repeatedly failed to dispel the New Deal initiative in real estate development. China's real estate prices in many cities have begun to rise out of control, but No negative news from overwhelming. Therefore, the heat can not control the real estate market in an attempt to curb investment in fixed assets is highly unlikely.
trade surplus, the first 8 months of this year China's trade surplus has reached more than 1,600 billion dollars , close to last year's value. Although frequent introduction of fiscal policies, the yuan hit a new high repeatedly, compared to before the appreciation of the exchange reform nearly 7%, but did nothing to ease the trade surplus, but showed worse. The Therefore, to reduce the appreciation of China's trade surplus in the failure of the law, the fundamental reason is that the Marshall Lerner condition does not exist m, that China's import demand and export demand is not sensitive to the exchange rate. Therefore, the RMB appreciation to reduce surplus destined to be a point of no return the contrary, the appreciation will cause a lot of economic troubles, such as the ravages of hot money, or even lead to social problems. Therefore, the short-term reduction surplus only be a luxury.
since the beginning of this year, beginning to show signs of domestic inflation , August 6.5% of the CPI data published, it is strong in the whole society began to form inflation expectations. from October 2004 to the present the central bank to raise interest rates several times this year, adding even more unprecedented five times, but it is now CPI and do not see obvious signs of decline. Although the current round of inflation is mainly derived from agricultural prices, the current inflation does not appear comprehensive. But the rural employment structure changed the root causes agricultural prices factor in the short term can not be digested, the source is very difficult to block agricultural prices. And the Commerce Department released September 18 survey, the main supply of consumer goods in the second half started tight, this is the first time since 1998, the phenomenon of aggregate demand and aggregate supply the changes quietly taking place in seemed, the future described by the AD-AS model, or in front of inflation.
look at the asset markets. Currently, China's financial assets are relatively poor, because of this, diversion channels to be limited to the capital stock and property markets. Right now the stock and property market is continuing to inflate the so-called return to operating profit income, A shares have reached 100 times earnings against the backdrop of the stock market comes down to the fiery end up to explain the rising stock market. the property market has a similar logic, the capital city it is obvious features.
The problem arises out of the short term, impossible to digest excess liquidity, but global liquidity for a long period in the future time, not to decrease but increase. With the September 18 Federal Reserve cut interest rates, easy monetary conditions to re-open the door, you can expect the dollar-based international monetary system background, century, or the reproduction of loose monetary conditions. Mobile surplus will continue to pile up big from the asset market bubbles in China. Thus, Dr. Tao Dong, real economy and asset markets and all the problems facing excess liquidity are inextricably linked. And Now, A shares and the degree of the property market bubble intensified and really confirms the rally non-stop, br> It appears that high levels of macroeconomic data and the full swing of the asset markets, will allow the Chinese economy continues to fire on the grill. China's economic ship high-speed operation of the aircraft can continue to run smoothly, and ultimately achieve a landing Financial Daily Column
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